Know the Foe: 7 questions on Minnesota before Penn State matchup (2024)

Preseason expectations nationally were not high at all. When the Vegas win totals were released, Minnesota was tied with Purdue for the fewest wins at 4.5, and while the number ended at 5-5.5, the point remains that no one was expecting much from the Golden Gophers. I ultimately predicted they'd go 7-5 in August, and now sitting at 6-4 with two games to go, they'll be right on that track.

The theme of the season has been close games, which goes all the way back to the opener against North Carolina. P.J Fleck's team played their sloppiest game of his tenure and ultimatelylost a game they absolutely should have won. They held a 14-7 lead against Iowa at halftime, and then imploded in the second half to lose by three scores. Butthen things turned in that second half against Michigan where they almost pulled off the upset in Ann Arbor, and then ripped off four straight wins in which QB Max Brosmer led three different game-winning fourth quarter drives. And then against Rutgers before the bye week, they were up two heading into the fourth quarter and couldn't finish.

Minnesota is as battle-tested as any Big Ten team heading into this one.

P.J Fleck would tell you that he doesn't believe in momentum and never has, but I'd say it certainly left a sour taste in the mouths of many Gopher coaches and players. They were due to have the coin come up tails instead of heads in yet another one-score game as they pulled it out against USC, UCLA and Illinois in such fashion, but it's a team that needed the bye week.

Key players like running back Darius Taylor and EDGE Jah Joyner were playing through some significant bumps and bruises, and now with a bye week to get as healthy as they can for these final two games, there's motivation to show that this Gopher team can continue to play with anyone.

Penn State is in their own tier for the caliber of opponent that Minnesota has faced this season, but with some extra time to gameplan while the Nittany Lions are on their fifth consecutive game, the Gophers want to prove that they're better than their record indicates.

Max Brosmerhas been arguably the best quarterback in the Fleck era, and if not the top, he's in the same tier with what Tanner Morgan produced during that magical 2019 season.

He's on track to break Minnesota's all-time completion percentage record, and hasn't turned the ball over since late September. He's not the most athletic or strongest armed quarterback in the conference, but he's got one of the best processors you'll see. He's consistently getting to his second and third read and often isn't flappable.

He'll be targeting three guys in receivers Daniel Jackson and Elijah Spencer, plus tailback Darius Taylor.

Don't sleep on the running back as Taylor's 45 receptions lead all Big Ten running backs and are second among Power Four backs. Jackson was an All-Big Ten performer a year ago, and he's currently top-six in the conference in receptions and receiving yards. He's not the biggest, fastest or shiftiest, but he's an elite separator in his routes. Spencer is their slot receiver who has five or more receptions in each of the last three games and is key on third down.

It's not just one thing, but I believe the biggest bucket with the issues has been the offensive line, which doesn't make a lot of sense to me as to why.

They have a Senior Bowl left tackle in Aireontae Ersery, a three-year starter on the right side in Quinn Carroll, a multi-year starter at guard in Tyler Cooper, but they haven't been able to run all season long. They'll have games like they did against USC and Illinois where they click and get consistent knockback and limit penalties and missed assignments, but then games like Rutgers where they allow penetration and pressure with four defensive linemen across from them.

I don't know why they've been this way, but it's the reality for that group now 10 games into the season. They've been really good or not so good in the last month, and I don't know which group will show up on Saturday against one of the top defensive units in college football.

They are among the most opportunistic defenses in college football as they have 20 takeaways thus far, which is tied with Iowa for the Big Ten lead.

If they can get you into passing down situations, defensive coordinator Corey Hetherman can get creative with his looks pre-snap vs. post-snap and it's been an opportunistic secondary with Koi Perich, Justin Walley and Kerry Brown among others as the beneficiaries.

Where they struggle at times is on third down as they're 13th in conference play there, allowing 45% of third downs to be converted against them. They've also struggled at times with missed tackles.

Perich has been a true freshman star as he leads the Big Ten in interceptions with five from his safety spot. He's really good at playing center field and reading the eyes of the quarterback for overthrows or to be able to jump routes. Walley, a corner,is playing some of the best football of his career in his final season, and then linebacker Cody Lindenberg has done the same now that he's as healthy as he's been in multiple years.

Minnesota's special teams are not good, and it's something new every week seemingly.

Their All-Big Ten kicker from 2023, Dragan Kesich, started the year 7-13 on field goals, which cost them, but he's found it since the bye week making all eight of his field goal attempts. The punting game isn't going to flip the field, but Mark Crawford can pin you within your 10 pretty well. Koi Perich is their return man, and I'd argue he's their top threat to break one, but we really haven't seen much of late, and this return unit hasn't returned one for a touchdown since 2018.

It's something new every week with this unit, so we'll see how it plays out on Saturday.

Injury-wise, they're banged up, but guys like running backDarius Taylor, edge rusherJah Joynerand others should play. They'll also get starting guard Tyler Cooper back after missing the last two games in the concussion protocol.

The one to watch is starting strong safety Aidan Gousby,who left the Rutgers game with a hamstring injury and didn't return. If he can't go, I expect Kerry Brown to slide over and Perich to play free safety.

Minnesota will threaten an upset if... they can force multiple turnovers on defense and hit on explosive plays on offense. Drew Allar doesn't put the ball in harm's way often, but Minnesota needs to get turnovers in this game to flip field position for their offense to score points. And then coordinatorGreg Harbaugh's offense has to hit at least three 30-plus yard plays as well. Do that, and you'll put yourself in a position to win the game in the fourth quarter.

My expectation is that Minnesota keeps this close into halftime, but ultimately Penn State gets an explosive play with Tyler Warren for a score, and then their pass-rush derails enough Gopher drives.

Penn State 27, Minnesota 13

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