Bill Connelly, ESPN Staff WriterFeb 14, 2024, 07:31 AM ET
College football's offseason might have changed dramatically through the years thanks to transfers, changes in the recruiting calendar, et cetera. But there is at least one constant in this topsy-turvy world: It's early-February, so I'm cranking out winter SP+ projections.
The official 2024 recruiting cycle is in the books, and while we will see loads of further player movement in April and May, after spring football, things are relatively stable for the moment. So let's take our first step toward the 2024 season.
I base SP+ projections on three primary factors, weighted by their predictiveness:
1. Returning production. The returning production numbers are based on rosters I have updated as much as possible to account for transfers and attrition. Combine last year's SP+ ratings and adjustments based on current returning production numbers, and you're pretty far down the projections road.
2. Recent recruiting. This piece informs us of the caliber of a team's potential replacements (and/or new stars) in the lineup. It is determined by the past few years of recruiting rankings in reverse chronological order (the most recent class carries the most weight). Beginning last season, I also began incorporating transfers -- both the quality and the volume -- into the recruiting rankings part as well.
3. Recent history. Using a sliver of information from previous seasons (2-4 years ago) gives us a good measure of overall program health. It stands to reason that a team that has played well for one year is less likely to duplicate that effort than a team that has been good for years on end (and vice versa), right?
I will update these numbers in May and August after there have been further transfers and roster changes. And I learned my lesson last year: While I have historically begun my season preview series in February following the release of these projections, I am waiting until May this time around. There's no point in telling you about my 10 favorite players in Conference USA or something when seven of those players might leave a week after the preview goes up.
A reminder on SP+: It's a tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency. It is a predictive measure of the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football, not a résumé ranking. Along those same lines, these projections aren't intended to be a guess at what the AP Top 25 will look like at the end of the season. These are simply early offseason power rankings based on the information we have been able to gather to date.
Here are the full rankings, now featuring 134 teams with the addition of the mighty Kennesaw State Owls.
Conference-by-conference breakdown
The new era of consolidation begins in 2024, with the disappearance of the Pac-12 and the power plays made by the SEC (adding Oklahoma and Texas) and Big Ten (adding USC, UCLA, Oregon and Washington). We also have a 16-team Big 12 and a 17-team ACC after the conferences vacuumed up most of the rest of the Pac-12. (I will be counting Oregon State and Washington State as independents this season.)
What has happened to the actual football balance of power following all these moves? You guessed it: The SEC, which was the best conference before adding one of last year's CFP teams, remains No. 1. And the Big Ten is closer to the Big 12 -- which leads the nation in average returning production and boasts the same number of top 35 teams as the Big Ten (eight each) -- than the SEC.
Average SP+ rating by conference
SEC (14.3)
Big Ten (8.7)
Big 12 (4.7)
ACC (3.9)
Sun Belt (-7.4)
MWC (-9.2)
AAC (-9.4)
CUSA (-11.1)
MAC (-13.7)
As you might expect, there's a pretty significant drop between the top four conferences and the fifth-place Sun Belt. Each conference has at least one team ranked 53rd or higher, but in this transfer-heavy era, with a decent number of teams suffering major attrition, depth is hard to put together for a Group of 5 conference. (Granted, it's hard for power conferences, too: The ACC has five teams ranked 70th or worse, the Big 12 has four and the Big Ten has three.)
Who starts out with the power? Here are the three teams with the highest current rankings in each conference:
SEC: No. 1 Georgia, No. 4 Texas, No. 6 Alabama
Big Ten: No. 2 Ohio State, No. 3 Oregon, No. 5 Michigan
Big 12: No. 17 Utah, No. 18 Kansas State, No. 19 Arizona
ACC: No. 12 Florida State, No. 16 Clemson, No. 21 Miami
Sun Belt: No. 47 Appalachian State, No. 51 Louisiana, No. 57 JMU
MWC: No. 50 Boise State, No. 54 Fresno State, No. 67 UNLV
AAC: No. 36 Memphis, No. 64 UTSA, No. 69 Tulane
CUSA: No. 38 Liberty, No. 68 WKU, No. 75 Jacksonville State
MAC: No. 53 Miami (Ohio), No. 83 Toledo, No. 93 NIU
SP+ vs. conventional wisdom
Stats and eyeballs tend to agree most of the time ... but not all the time. Let's compare the rankings above to Mark Schlabach's updated Way-Too-Early 2024 Top 25 to see where the biggest disagreements lie at this point in the offseason.
Buy, buy, buy!
No. 13 (25th in the Way-Too-Early Top 25). It's hard to blame Schlabach or anyone else for refusing to fully buy in on Texas A&M. The Aggies are, after all, 20-17 over the last three seasons, and they are getting started with a new head coach in Mike Elko. But they improved quite a bit last season, jumping from 39th to 16th in SP+ despite quarterback injuries, and only an 0-4 record in one-score finishes prevented them from improving their record beyond 7-6. Their returning production numbers are strong (they lead the SEC in that category, actually), and Elko worked solid first-year magic at Duke in 2022. They'll have a shot at something impressive -- especially if quarterback Conner Weigman can stay healthy.
No. 22 Iowa State Cyclones (unranked in the Way-Too-Early Top 25). All I'm asking from the Big 12 in 2024 is nonstop chaos and hilarity -- my joke for years has been that every game in the conference is decided by three points, and it just brought in some teams that are basically the exact equal of so much of the rest of the conference -- and it made me really happy to see that the conference's top five teams all rank between 17th and 22nd in SP+. Seeing ISU at No. 22, however, might have surprised you a bit. The Cyclones are second nationally in returning production, and like a lot of the other teams on this list, their record probably wasn't as good as it could have been: They lost three one-score games to teams that finished with nine or more wins. (Granted, one of those was to Ohio. Still counts.) If experience leads to better close-game performance, look out.
No. 5 Michigan Wolverines (13th in the Way-Too-Early Top 25). Be on the lookout for this scrappy, overlooked underdog! Kidding. The defending national champs are going to look awfully new in 2024 - new head coach (Sherrone Moore), new quarterback, new offensive line, new linebacking corps - and that could indeed cause a decent amount of slippage. But the recent history component of SP+ obviously smiles on the Wolverines, and recruiting numbers are solid too. Their ceiling is still going to be pretty high.
No. 6 Alabama Crimson Tide (9th in the Way-Too-Early Top 25). Same story here. Recent history and recruiting say that Alabama's ceiling is still going to be pretty Alabama-ish, but returning production and that whole "Replacing the greatest college football coach of all time" thing could hold the Tide back.
No. 12 Florida State Seminoles (15th in the Way-Too-Early Top 25). The end of the Seminoles' 2023 season was about as negative as any you'll see, with FSU first getting screwed out of a CFP bid, then suffering loads of opt-outs and getting their doors blown off by Georgia in the Orange Bowl. But SP+ is giving them some benefit of the doubt here, in part because Mike Norvell once again did nice work in the portal, bringing in a number of experienced, high-upside players with major-conference starting experience (most noteworthy: Oregon State quarterback DJ Uiagalelei). FSU might not have 2023-level upside, but the floor should still be pretty high.
No. 21 Miami Hurricanes (24th in the Way-Too-Early Top 25). Oh hey, look, another team you've probably been burned by buying into before. Mario Cristobal enters a big third season with a healthy number of returning starters, some interesting transfers -- Washington State quarterback Cam Ward, Washington nickelback Mishael Powell, Marshall edge rusher Elijah Alston -- and another highly ranked recruiting class. The Canes improved to 28th in SP+ last season, but a 2-4 record in one-score finishes held their record back.
Sell, sell, sell!
No. 35 Kansas Jayhawks (22nd in the Way-Too-Early Top 25). With the return of quarterback Jalon Daniels -- I used his 2022 stats in the returning production formula -- it's easy to be pretty excited about KU as the Jayhawks come off their first nine-win season in 16 years. Coach Lance Leipold really is a miracle worker. But while the offense should remain excellent, turnover on defense -- especially at linebacker -- could hold them back. At 35th, they don't need to exceed projections much to have another huge season, but they might be a step or two off the pack in the potentially wild Big 12 race.
No. 19 Arizona Wildcats (11th in the Way-Too-Early Top 25). It's hard to figure out what to do with Arizona right now. On one hand, the Wildcats obviously lost head coach Jedd Fisch and a number of transfers to Washington, their defensive line is almost completely starting over, and they aren't the team that finished the 2023 season so incredibly well. On the other hand, they held onto quarterback Noah Fifita and receiver Tetairoa McMillan, their offensive line looks fantastic, and offensive-minded new head coach Brent Brennan should have a lot of fun with that. Still, 11th is pretty aggressive.
No. 28 NC State Wolfpack (18th in the Way-Too-Early Top 25). The Wolfpack finished the regular season with five straight wins but once again came up just short of 10 wins thanks to a Pop-Tarts Bowl loss to Kansas State. They should be one of the more physically impressive teams in the ACC (they usually are), and if injuries haven't sapped him of his mobility, Coastal Carolina transfer Grayson McCall could be awfully fun at quarterback. But the offense hasn't finished in the top 50 for the past two years, McCall's mobility is a question, and while the defense should be strong once again, it has to replace quite a few excellent players.
No. 17 Utah Utes (10th in the Way-Too-Early Top 25). OK, I guess we're not really selling the Utes, since they're the projected leader in the Big 12. But 12th might be a bit too ambitious for a team that loses three skill-corps starters and is trusting that quarterback Cam Rising can still produce a strong A-game after missing all of last season with a lingering knee issue. (The defense could be coach Kyle Whittingham's best in years, though.)
No. 40 Kentucky Wildcats (23rd in the Way-Too-Early Top 25). The Wildcats have won more than seven games just once in the last four seasons, and they rank in the triple digits in returning production. The offense improved quite a bit last year but lost starting quarterback Devin Leary, almost all of the RB corps and a good chunk of the offensive line. The defense slid considerably in 2023, and the front seven took on quite a bit of attrition. Basically, to view the Wildcats as a top-25 team, you have to believe that Mark Stoops' major changes -- both in the coaching staff and via the transfer portal (with players like Georgia quarterback Brock Vandagriff, North Texas receiver Ja'More Maclin and Georgia linebacker Jamon Dumas-Johnson) -- create a major turnaround.
