Bill Connelly, ESPN Staff WriterNov 19, 2023, 02:30 PM
Michigan is showing signs of wear and tear, but with a 2.5-point home-field adjustment, the Wolverines are still a six-point projected home favorite over Ohio State, according to the updated SP+ rankings.
Michigan has ranked first in SP+ since Week 5 and held steady after Week 12's results, but to the extent that trends matter, an interesting one has emerged: The Wolverines have underachieved against SP+ projections by 6.3 points per game over the past three weeks, while the Buckeyes have overachieved by 4.0 PPG in that same span and haven't actually underachieved against projections since Week 2. Ohio State remains third overall, and the top three -- Michigan, Georgia and the Buckeyes, with Oregon lingering nearby (so maybe top 3.5?) -- have formed a clear top tier.
What is SP+? In a single sentence, it's a tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency. I created the system at Football Outsiders in 2008, and as my experience with both college football and its stats has grown, I have made quite a few tweaks to the system.
SP+ is indeed intended to be predictive and forward-facing. It is not a résumé ranking that gives credit for big wins or particularly brave scheduling -- no good predictive system is. It is simply a measure of the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football. If you're lucky or unimpressive in a win, your rating will probably fall. If you're strong and unlucky in a loss, it will probably rise.
Here are the full rankings:
This week's movers
Let's take a look at the teams that saw the biggest change in their overall ratings. (Note: We're looking at ratings, not rankings.)
MOVING UP
Here are the 10 teams that saw their ratings rise the most this week:
Jacksonville State: +5.1 adjusted points per game (ranking rose from 87th to 63rd)
UNLV: +5.0 points (63rd to 46th)
Miami (Ohio): +4.5 points (64th to 52nd)
Colorado State: +3.5 points (111th to 95th)
UTSA: +2.9 points (48th to 45th)
Washington State: +2.9 points (56th to 50th)
Eastern Michigan: +2.9 points (116th to 105th)
Boise State: +2.8 points (51st to 49th)
Arkansas State: +2.8 points (98th to 86th)
Wyoming: +2.6 points (96th to 83rd)
As you can probably glean, opponent and conference adjustments continue to evolve as the sample size gets larger, so teams' weekly ratings changes aren't due solely to their Saturday performances. But Jacksonville State destroying Louisiana Tech by 39 points on Saturday certainly didn't hurt.
Also, UNLV hasn't finished in the SP+ top 50 since 1984, when Randall Cunningham was the quarterback. The 9-2 Rebels jumped to 46th this week. Barry Odom might be the best-performing first-year head coach in the nation.
MOVING DOWN
Here are the 10 teams whose ratings fell the most:
Wake Forest: -5.4 adjusted points per game (74th to 92nd)
Baylor: -5.1 points (84th to 101st)
Arizona State: -4.7 points (91st to 106th)
Utah: -4.1 points (22nd to 37th)
Purdue: -4.1 points (85th to 97th)
Marshall: -4.0 points (90th to 103rd)
Tennessee: -3.8 points (16th to 22nd)
Houston: -3.6 points (82nd to 91st)
Cincinnati: -3.3 points (71st to 81st)
Georgia State: -3.2 points (89th to 98th)
Week 12 accelerated the collapse of quite a few disappointing teams. I guess that makes sense, considering a lot of teams don't have much to play for at the moment. That said, Tennessee's fall is interesting. Against two top 20 opponents, the 7-4 Volunteers were outscored by a combined 74-17 the past two weeks. Their rating peaked at 11th just two weeks ago. Now it's falling quickly.
Conference rankings
Here are the FBS' 10 conferences, ranked by average SP+.
1. SEC: +9.7 average points per team (32.1 offense, 23.4 defense)
2. Pac-12: +5.4 points (32.4 offense, 26.8 defense)
3. Big Ten: +5.2 points (23.4 offense, 18.7 defense)
4. Big 12: +4.6 points (29.6 offense, 25.4 defense)
5. ACC: +3.4 points (27.2 offense, 24.2 defense)
6. Sun Belt: -4.6 points (25.5 offense, 29.9 defense)
7. Mountain West: -6.8 points (23.9 offense, 30.9 defense)
8. Conference USA: -7.7 points (22.6 offense, 29.5 defense)
9. AAC: -8.6 points (23.9 offense, 32.0 defense)
10. MAC: -11.2 points (17.4 offense, 27.9 defense)
The Big Ten has the best defenses and offenses worse than the Mountain West's and AAC's? Yeah, that checks out.
Résumé SP+
Because the College Football Playoff rankings are on the horizon, I'm also including Résumé SP+ rankings in this piece each week.
As mentioned above, SP+ is intended to be a power rating, not a résumé evaluation tool, but Résumé SP+ attempts to fill that latter gap. It is a look at two things: (1) how the average SP+ top-five team would be projected to perform against your schedule (in terms of scoring margin) and (2) how your scoring margin compares to (1). Throw in a seven-point penalty for every loss a team has suffered, and you can say that this is what the CFP rankings would look like if SP+ were in charge.
(Note: Because of the high bar teams have to clear in getting compared to an average top-five team, and because of the loss adjustment, almost every team here ends up with a negative score. It is what it is.)
Here is this week's Résumé SP+ top 15:
1. Michigan (11-0): +0.7 points
2. Georgia (11-0): +0.6
3. Ohio State (11-0): -0.2
4. Florida State (11-0): -4.3
5. Oregon (10-1): -6.4
6. Washington (11-0): -6.6
7. Alabama (10-1): -9.6
8. Texas (10-1): -14.1
9. Penn State (9-2): -14.8
10. Oklahoma (9-2): -19.0
11. Louisville (10-1): -19.6
12. Liberty (11-0): -19.8
13. Kansas State (8-3): -23.6
14. Ole Miss (9-2): -24.2
15. Notre Dame (8-3): -24.6
Even accounting for the devastating injury for FSU's Jordan Travis, there's absolutely no drama in the playoff race until one of the unbeatens (other than the loser of Michigan-Ohio State) loses. If we end up with four 13-0 teams, the selection process will be awfully easy, huh?
